My 2 cents....

Windows (microsoft for that matter) will be around for a long time
because they appeal to the non-computer-literate as well as the
computer literate...Linux does not. My grandma can use windows,
but she isnt gonna be able to do much with Linux in its current state.
Another problem is that Microsoft is a "supported product" whereas
linux is not. What I mean by this is that MS is a big corp and can back
they're crummy products with service and support (and lord knows
that NT shops need their support). Linux can't offer that because no
company "owns" it. I work for a large corporation and what determines
what products we use is mainly how well a company can support it
and not just that, how stable the company is. We're a HP/NT/Oracle
shop to name the big ones. I personally think NT is too buggy and
unreliable, HP will die in 5-10 years (they will port their kernel to
linux is what i mean), and Oracle is way overpriced for what it offers
compared to other db's. But we use those products because they are
backed by large companys that have a good chance of NOT
disappearing in the future. Thats what matters to large companies
with all the money--its not how good of a product it is.

Linux will doom HP (and other *nix's) long before MS is doomed.
Linux will gain back web share and slowly gain ground in the server
market vs. NT but at some point it will even out--say 50%. But for
all those people who have jobs because of the bloatware, buggyness,
and complexity of NT...they are never gonna want to see a stable
OS take over cause they'll all be out of jobs. MS also has the market

firmly in hand in any software technology that thrives on a GUI and
fancy looks. We have to admit, graphics on MS platforms are pretty
sweet. Ever notice that the linux advocates dont have a problem
dealing with a CLI but all the windows advocates barely know their
way around DOS? Linux is also gaining ground mainly in areas
where a GUI is not necessary (web,ftp server, file server, etc.) but
not making much serious headway in areas where a GUI is needed
(such as applications). This is a sign that MS is safe for a while.

MS has about 5 years in my opinion to straighten up their act and
produce a stable server-class os or they risk people seriously 
looking to dump them for linux. This swing should co-incide around
the time that linux claims its first major victory in the OS market
which in my opinion will be HP's decision to port their OS to a linux
kernel (ie. run linux bins on an HP distro of linux). Once companies
see this happen they will put the pressure on MS to straighten up
or they will abandon MS as well. MS of course is not stupid and
will do something to quell that problem--perhaps a stripped down
microkernel that will run very stable and will only run specific
servies and NO GUI--cause we dont need a GUI on a box running
services (i wish they would figure this out).

The last major effect that could cause us to see a major change
in the industry is a recession. IT salaries are outragous (good for
me) because of suppy and demand. If our economy actually goes
into a recession (no, were not in one right now) then I think we'll
see salaries curb, fewer job oppourtinites due a slowing of hiring
and companies will get serious about cutting their IT costs and
put pressure on MS because of money and many will start looking at
linux and open source software. Just image the number of jobs
lost if the world doesnt need so many NT admins to fix what
constantly breaks on NT!!

Thats my crystal ball....



At 03:57 PM 1/25/01 -0600, you wrote:
>Regarding the "WIndows has it's place, and it's place is quickly shrinking."
>
>Where is the evidence for this?  I don't claim to be a know-all but I can't
>see where Windows is going away or even slowing down.  Now I am a huge Linux
>advocate, I just don't want to be dishonest to myself because that is what I
>would like to see.  Some would like to say it's the power of the mind, if
>you think it hard enough it will happen.  I think that sometimes we in the
>Linux community want to believe so badly that Linux or *nix can take over
>the M$ powers that be, we even start believeing it.  Linux is a better
>product, hands down, but M$ knows how to market, and they have lots and lots
>of power, copyright Janet Reno.
>
>Of course, this is my opinion, I could be wrong. (copyright Dennis Miller)
>
>____________________________________
>Jason Sowers
>Network Engineer
>Open Systems International
>3600 Holly Lane North Suite 40
>Minneapolis, MN 55447-1286
>Phone:  (763) 551-0559
>Fax:      (763) 551-1750
>Email: jsowers at osii.com <mailto:jsowers at osii.com>
>http:  www.osii.com <http://www.osii.com>  & www.e-scada.com
><http://www.e-scada.com>
>
>>Windows has it's place, and it's place is quickly
>>shrinking.
>
>
>--
>Thomas J. Hudak
>Systems Administrator
>Sistina Software Inc. - www.sistina.com
>Phone: 612.379.3951 Page: 612.318.1967
>Fax: 612.379.3952
>
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>